基于双因子Lee-Carter模型的死亡率预测及年金产品风险评估

本文针对传统单因子Lee-Carter模型中死亡率的改善呈常数速率的明显弊端,利用贝叶斯MCMC方法和中国实际人口死亡率数据,考察对比了双因子Lee-Carter模型的预测效果.检验结果表明双因子模型的拟合优度和离差信息准则DIC明显优于单因子模型,较好地抓住了死亡率随时间演进的波动性.文章还进一步比较了基于两种模型预测结果的年金的定价、统计特征、风险度量和资本要求.结果表明双因子模型下,年金价格核密度图的尖峰厚尾现象较为突出,宜考虑TVaR风险度量来弥补SolvencyⅡ中基于VaR的资本额度计算方法的不足,以因应年金产品中死亡率超预期改善的长寿风险.     

浅谈如何营造图书馆特色空间——以山东交通学院交通文化特色库空间设计为例

图书馆特色空间建设是图书馆特色文化的重要组成部分。阐述了交通文化特色库馆藏资源的判别,分析了交通文化特色库馆藏内容的排序,提出了创造空间环境视觉美感的途径。     

基于RFID技术的安全跟车系统

为了提高行车安全性,基于RFID技术提出了一种安全跟车系统(SCFS).在此系统中,RFID标签部署在道路表面,为安装有RFID读卡器的车辆提供道路信息.系统根据标签中存储信息的时间特性,利用时间序列预测法,预测前车的行驶状态并估测两车之间的道路距离;结合当前行驶状态对车速进行适当调整,以保证行车安全.本文给出了3个系统性能评价指标,并进行仿真实验.结果表明,SCFS系统能够在不同跟车行驶状态下保证行车安全,避免追尾碰撞的发生.     

电影《美国丽人》中“美”的视觉语法解析

语言学家克雷斯和范吕文提出的视觉语法为新读图时代的语篇解读提供了理论工具，也为分析和解读以视觉元素为主要表迭方式的电影提供一个新的视角。电影《美国丽人》在题材，表达和成就上都有着一定的代表性。通过围绕电影主题“美”的图片进行视觉语法分析，在电影叙事过程中，“美”的符号构建，主题的多层次性得到凸显，电影人物对于各自“美”的符号的选择表达出对于美的不同侧面的感知，从而体现各自的价值观。     

A structural interpretation of measurement and some related epistemological issues

Measurement is widely applied because its results are assumed to be more reliable than opinions and guesses, but this reliability is sometimes justified in a stereotyped way. After a critical analysis of such stereotypes, a structural characterization of measurement is proposed, as partly empirical and partly theoretical process, by showing that it is in fact the structure of the process that guarantees the reliability of its results. On this basis the role and the structure of background knowledge in measurement and the justification of the conditions of object-relatedness (“objectivity”) and subject-independence (“intersubjectivity”) of measurement are specifically discussed.     

Research on intelligent ultrasonic thickness measurement system applied to large area of hull

For a ship in service,seawater corrosion is unavoidable.In order to ensure navigation safety and master the steel plate thickness in service ship,thickness of the ship steel plate must be tested periodically by a scientific method.After consideration of an actual situation of thickness measurement,the bearing mechanism of ultrasonic thickness meter probe has been designed on the basis of wall-climbing robot,and preliminary experiments have been carried out.The device is mainly used for thickness measurement of a large area of ship hull plate when the docking ship has been sandblasted.Efficiency and safety can be improved to finish thickness measurement by using the device.     

A survey of occlusion detection method for visual object

Occlusion problem is one of the challenging issues in vision field for a long time , and the occlu-sion phenomenon of visual object will be involved in many vision research fields .Once the occlusion occurs in a visual system , it will affect the effects of object recognition , tracking, observation and operation , so detecting occlusion autonomously should be one of the abilities for an intelligent vision system .The research on occlusion detection method for visual object has increasingly attracted atten-tions of scholars .First, the definition and classification of the occlusion problem are presented . Then, the characteristics and deficiencies of the occlusion detection methods based on the intensity image and the depth image are analyzed respectively , and the existing occlusion detection methods are compared.Finally, the problems of existing occlusion detection methods and possible research directions are pointed out .     

经济统计学：从德国传统到当代困境

从经济统计学历史各流派中概括出4种学科范式和3种主要学科观念,进而从基本算法、指标和测度悖律3个方面阐述本学科的基本问题和约束,再从现代经济学的母学科背景来分析经济统计学的当代困境,最后从外生与内生、结构与层次2个方面做出学科展望.     

小型钢轨损伤自动检测装置的开发

在分析了目前国内外钢轨磨耗检测技术的特点及方法的基础上,结合铁路工务段的实际检测需要,提出了小型钢轨损伤自动监测装置的整体方案。利用光电检测技术、微处理器技术及数据处理技术完成了检测装置的开发,并进行了试验测试,结果表明检测系统具有检测速度快、精度高、性能可靠的特点。开发的装置便于携带,具有人机对话功能,解决了目前检测设备普遍体积过大、携带不方便及检测效率低等问题。     

基于IMU与sEMG混合信号的实时手势分类算法研究

为了提高表面肌电信号(surface electromyography,sEMG)的手势分类准确率，通过惯性测量单元(inertial measurement unit,IMU)与采集姿态信号与sEMG的混合信号，提出了GRUBiLSTM双层网络的实时手势分类算法。第1层门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)利用能量组合算子特征对混合信号进行突变点检测，定位运动态数据起始点；第2层双向长短时记忆循环神经网络(Bi-directional long short term memory,BiLSTM)使用能量核相图特征对运动态混合信号进行2个方向10种手势的分类。通过离线模型优化，分类算法识别时间低于40 ms，突变点检测精度88.7%以上，手势分类准确率为85%，信息传输率(informationtranslaterate, ITR)达到89.9 bits/min，与基于机器学习的分类算法相比，在准确率与计算效率上具有优势。